I've been getting a fair few mails and skype messages from players and a fair few from people in lower class wormholes saying they are having similar issues to my alt corp in the C4.
One of the issues with wormholes is if you have had enough and want to leave. Its a fair bit of work you need to do, unless you just want to lose everything in your wormhole. You have a crap load to pack up, ships to move out, spare ammo, mods, any sleeper loot you have. Then your pos and the pos modules.
When Aharm moved out of Nova they had 120 million m3 of stuff to move out over 3000 ships a 100 capitals and over 50 pos's. They expected it to take 2 months but managed to get it done in 3 weeks.
Small groups won't have anywhere near that amount of stuff, But then they won't also have the manpower to help either. Either way it will probably take a while to move out. What this means is that some stats just won't show up for a while.
Anyway on to the prediction.
In the next 2 to 3 weeks alot of smaller groups in C1 to C4 will find that with the new frig wormholes and the fact that closing statics is alot harder they won't be able to farm anywhere near enough to cover loses they have due to losing stuff rolling or running sites. They'll move out stubborn ones will stay. While others go to hisec to farm incursions. (its worth noting low class income is pretty terrible anyway and what with the new risks will make it even worse)
The next month will see the bigger groups start to maybe not feel any isk pressure. But they will notice alot less people in W-space. In NoHo we have HUGE chains due to the frig wormholes, there all well and good but if all the wormholes are empty, whats the point?
Some of them might run in to issues when connected to bigger groups they cant fight. I can see some corps/alliances merging.
Some due to lack of content and stuff to fight will leave and join null or lowsec groups.
At the 3 month point I see things settling down people who haven't left at this point won't, you'll have the die hard of wormhole space left, that's it. Lower class wormholes will be a barren waste land due to the fact its just not worth the risk to live in, combined with there being much better income else where like highsec incursions. The larger groups that are left will probably spend most of there time doing nullsec roams for pvp.
By this point I can see anywhere from 20% to 40% of the wormhole population gone. Which is dire. I really hope it doesn't get that bad, and that CCP make some changes. The issue is changes might already be to late. People are leaving and once they have left the chance of them coming back isn't great.
For all the people who have sent me mails/skype messages of support and thanks, its really appreciated.